The analysis of homicide data in Italy from 2019 to 2024 allows for a rigorous and mathematical assessment of gender dynamics, clearing the field of ideological narratives and focusing exclusively on the numbers.
The Cold Numbers
| Case Type | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total number of homicides | 315 | 303 | 285 | 322 | 298 | 314 |
| Homicides committed by men | ~294 | ~281 | ~266 | ~302 | ~279 | ~294 |
| Homicides committed by women | ~21 | ~22 | ~19 | ~20 | ~19 | ~20 |
| Female victims | 111 | 112 | 119 | 126 | 107 | 111 |
| Male victims | 204 | 191 | 166 | 196 | 191 | 203 |
| Homicides with male victims and female perpetrators | ~9 | ~10 | ~8 | ~8 | 12 | ~8 |
| Homicides with female victims and male perpetrators | ~103 | ~102 | ~111 | ~118 | 95 | ~103 |
Distribution of Homicides by Perpetrator Gender
Over the six years considered, the average percentage of homicides committed by men relative to the total is 93.4%. This value is extremely stable over time, fluctuating by only a few percentage points year to year. Consequently, only 6.6% of homicides are committed by women.
Application of the Percentage to Homicides with Female Victims
When examining the subset of homicides where the victim is female, the percentage of male perpetrators remains approximately the same. This means that out of an average of 111 female victims per year, about 104 are killed by men. This proportion exactly reflects the general distribution of homicides by perpetrator gender.
Statistical Implications and Occam’s Razor
The simplest and most rational explanation (according to Occam’s razor) for this phenomenon is that the predominance of men among perpetrators of homicides against women does not stem from widespread misogyny, but rather from the fact that men, in general, commit the vast majority of homicides regardless of the victim’s gender. Applying the same percentage to both the entire set and the subset of female victims yields a consistent result, without the need to invoke additional motivations or unsupported hypotheses.
Scale of the Phenomenon Relative to the Male Population
To assess the actual extent of the phenomenon, it is useful to relate the average annual number of homicides committed by men (approximately 286 cases) to the male population residing in Italy aged 17 to 85, estimated at about 20 million individuals. The result is that the percentage of men who commit a homicide in a given year is 0.0013% (about 1.3 per 100,000). This extremely low value indicates that homicides committed by men are statistically insignificant relative to the entire male population. The case of homicides of women by men is even more negligible in strictly statistical terms.
Conclusions
- The vast majority of homicides in Italy are committed by men (93.4%), and this same percentage is reflected in homicides with female victims.
- There is no statistical need to invoke widespread misogyny to explain this data: the simplest and most coherent explanation is that men, in general, commit far more homicides than women, regardless of the victim’s gender.
- The percentage of men who commit homicides relative to the male population is extremely low (0.0013% annually), making the phenomenon marginal on a national scale.
- The current narrative of an emergency situation is not supported by objective data, which instead suggest the need for a rational and proportionate interpretation of the phenomenon.
Closing Note
It is essential to highlight that the data on female victims includes all homicide cases regardless of motive: this encompasses not only crimes occurring in family or relational contexts but also those related to failed robberies, disputes, common crime, and other circumstances. This means the number of female victims does not exclusively reflect gender-based violence but represents a heterogeneous set of situations, further confirming the need for a cautious and non-ideological reading of the data.
This analysis demonstrates how a mathematical and statistical approach can provide a more accurate and coherent view of reality, avoiding distorted or alarmist interpretations unsupported by numerical evidence.
Note: The tilde (~) indicates data derived from averages across multiple sources.
Sources used for this article:
ISTAT website
Ministry of the Interior website
Public Security Department website
Center against Violence (Italy)
Many others...