# Gambling and Probability

In another article I talked about a particular rigged game, so let's also talk about gambling in general, at least the one we all come in contact with ...
Lotto, Roulette, Slot machines, Videopoker, etc ... all have one basic characteristic: THE MORE YOU PLAY THE MORE YOU LOSE!
And it's not me who says it, but math. IT'S SAFE! If you are patient I will prove it to you:
All games are characterized by a CONSTANT: there is always an advantage for those who keep the game, this advantage is measured in percentage, and can be clear and obvious, or "hidden", but there is ALWAYS.
For example, in Roulette, which is also the "most honest" game, you can bet on RED or BLACK, and get exactly double the payout. Regular? Yes, but don't forget the ZERO! The numbers are NOT 36, of which 18 red and 18 black, but 37!
Consequently, you are NOT 50% likely to win, but only 18/37 = 48.64%.
For the dozen, which pays 3 times, you have not 1/3 = 33.33% probability, but 12/37 = 32.43%.

(Please note that Lotto is an Italian game, but what I say below applies to any game with cash prizes)
For Lotto it is even worse:
"five numbers" pay 6,000,000 times, but what chance do you have of guessing it ?? Let's see how many are the five possible: 90 numbers, how can they be combined with each other in groups of 5?
The first number can be one of 90, so there are 90 possibilities, the second number can be any of the 89 left, the third number can be one of the 88 left, the fourth one out of 87 and the fifth one out of 86 ...
So there are 90x89x88x87x86 = 5.273.912.160 different five (also different for the position of the numbers).
Since the position of the single number does not count, we have to divide the first number by the number of ways in which 5 numbers can be arranged, which is 120.
We get 5.273.912.160/120=43.949.268 ONE OUT OF FORTYFOUR MILLION !!! And they pay you ONLY SIX MILLION TIMES !!
Incidentally, the calculation we did a little while ago tells us how many are the possible combinations of 5 numbers drawn from a group of 90 totals, of which 5 numbers DO NOT count the order (i.e. 12345 is the same as 53412). This is a very important count, now we reuse it for the terno.
The same goes for the other combinations: the terno pays 4,500 times. The possible terns are (calculating as before): 90x89x88 = 704.880 divided by the number of ways in which 3 numbers can be arranged, which is 6, therefore 704880/6 = 117.480, however 10 of them are extracted at a time (5 numbers make 10 different triads). So you have 1 chance out of 117480/10 = 11748 to get it right ...

Here is the proof: download the lottery simulation program, read the explanation file, and enjoy ... (Sorry, program and instructions are in Italian)

Simulotto (c) 2005

For prize pool games, the advantage for those who run the game is clear, because NOT ALL the money that people bet goes in the prize pool.

For slot-machines and videopoker in general, I demonstrate you in this article that probabilities ar tricked, do you ever think that electronic COULDN'T pilot wins ??

Assumed that the probability is AGAINST who plays, someone could object that in the end it is a probability, and therefore it is not said that it necessarily occurs.
MISTAKE !! The right answer is "it depends", and it depends precisely on HOW MANY TIMES YOU PLAY.
That's why I said before that the more you play the more you lose!
Let's take the classic example of money. If I roll a coin it can come out heads or tails, 50% probability. If I shoot 10 times it is also possible that I get 10 times head, or 9 or 8 times, in short, something that seems to go against the probability.
But if I pulled the coin 10000 times, I assure you that you will NEVER and NEVER see ONLY 1000 or 2000 crosses, I assure you, and I am willing to bet what you want, that you will have a distribution between 4000 and 6000 for each possibility.
And the more I pull the coin, the more the number of heads and crosses approaches 50%. DO NOT ESCAPE !!
INCREASING the number of attempts does nothing but APPROACH the probability to the THEORETICAL one. And the THEORETICAL one is ALWAYS AGAINST THE PLAYER.

There is only one way to WIN !!

A POSITIVE component needs to be introduced. Yeah but which one ?? INTELLIGENCE !!
You have to consider that you don't just play for the money, you have to LEARN to play for FUN!
And RUINING is not fun, is it ???? THEN LEARN A SIMPLE THING:
IT IS NEVER POSSIBLE TO "RECOVER MONEY"

It's a math question! YOU CAN NEVER RECOVER !! The only possibility is to DECIDE RESPONSIBLY BEFORE how much you can play, just for your enjoyment, and NEVER EXCEED THAT FIGURE!
For example, if you go to the casino, decide BEFORE ENTERING the amount, and LEAVE ALL THE MONEY IN THE CAR.
If you decide that the "different" and "exciting" evening is worth 100 Euros for you, enter with 100 Euros.
JUST WIN 100 Euros, put them back in your pocket, and play, if you want, only what you have won the most.
The MAXIMUM transgression that you can grant yourself, is to replay the initial 100 Euros, go as it goes, ALL YOUR EVENING costs you NO MORE than 100 Euros.

Same reasoning for video poker and slot machines: if it is fun for you to play, first establish what you can afford for your enjoyment ...

I repeat: DO NOT EXPECT TO WIN MONEY!
YOU PAY TO PLAY, AND THEREFORE TO HAVE FUN, AND TO ENJOY YOU MUST DECIDE FIRST WHICH NUMBER IS RIGHT!
Would you go to the cinema if the ticket cost 200 Euros ???? CERTAINLY NOT !!!

ATTENTION: if you are not convinced that I am right, if, in your heads, you are thinking things like "but I can make up for it", "but I can win money", "I can settle down" etc. etc. then I have bad news for you:

YOU ARE SICK!

COMPULSIVE GAME SYNDROME, or something like that ... It means GAME is stronger than YOU!

Search for Anonymous gamnbler support group, near you, before it's too late!

By playing little you always WIN: you EARN the fun, in any case.
Like at Superenalotto: playing TWO columns you have 2 chances out of 622 MILLION to settle down, for a lifetime.
The thrill of checking the ticket, it can also be worth THE SMALL EURO that you played ...

Playing 100 Euros a shot DOES NOT INCREASE the excitement ... and DOES NOT INCREASE the odds ... what do you expect from 200 out of 622 MILLION ??
IT IS NOTHING! It means always waiting for a few THOUSANDS OF YEARS (in theory).
It is one thing to wait for THOUSANDS OF YEARS spending 2 Euro per week, and if you wait THOUSANDS OF YEARS spending 200 Euro per week:

YOU'LL END IN MISERY, YOU'LL RUIN YOURSELF, YOUR FAMILY, AND EVERYONE WHO WANTS YOUR GOOD WILL SUFFER !!

I admit it, I got carried away ... devoted to this little investigation of mine, I spent a few hours in the tobacconist's shop, watching what kind of people play the famous slot machine on the previous page. I have seen people unable to control themselves, win 5 Euros and RE-PLAY ALL, AND LOSE THEM, AND LOSE 5 OTHER, THEN 5 OTHER, AND SO ON ...
Playing without self-control is WRONG.

I can't tell you more than this, if anyone had any suggestions, comments, or anything else to tell me to improve this message of mine, please use the contact form. Thanks

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